After over a year of fighting, death, and destruction, a ceasefire deal agreed to by both Israel and Hamas began on January 19, 2025. This deal is comprised of three stages, the first of which is currently underway. Key demands from both sides are being met under this ceasefire, including the return of Israeli hostages, an increase in humanitarian aid for Gaza, and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the densely populated areas of Gaza. To explain the intricacies of this agreement and the fragile peace it may bring, we asked SIS professor Boaz Atzili some questions.

How did this ceasefire agreement come into place? What made Israel and Hamas both agree?

The ceasefire agreement that is being implemented at the time of writing is almost the exact framework agreement that has been “on the table” at least since May. Hamas, in essence, agreed to the framework from the start and just demanded guarantees that it would lead to the end of the war and full Israeli withdrawal. Israel disagreed to commit to ending the war. The Biden administration tried but failed to press Israel into signing the ceasefire. The Trump administration, on the other hand, applied much heavier pressure and public threats, which resulted in Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime minister, signing the deal. This is, however, a detailed agreement only for stage 1, and at this point, only a framework agreement for stages 2 and 3.

Why did this agreement stick when previous attempts have failed?

We cannot yet say that this agreement will stick, as it is still a fragile agreement. It has begun to be implemented but has already faced hurdles and is vulnerable to provocations and manipulation because of the complex and lengthy nature of the agreement. We don’t know yet if this attempt will succeed. Whether it will be fully implemented depends, in my opinion, predominantly on whether the mediators will continue to apply heavy pressure on both sides to continue to comply, and especially on Israel to agree to an end of the war or a long-term ceasefire.

The ceasefire will take place in stages. What is included in those stages, and what is the timeline for each one?

There are three stages, each of them lasting 42 days. In the first stage, being implemented now, 33 Israeli hostages comprised of women, children, elderly, and wounded, will be returned in return for the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners. It is unknown whether the Israeli hostages returned in this stage will be alive or not. This stage also includes Israeli withdrawal from the large cities in Gaza, allowing residents of northern Gaza to return to their homes and will allow for a significant increase in the flow of humanitarian aid. In the second stage, younger Israeli male hostages will be released in return for more Palestinian prisoners. Israel will then agree to end the war. In the third phase, the war will end, the bodies of Israelis and Palestinians held by the other side will be exchanged, Israeli troops will withdraw completely from the Gaza Strip, and the reconstruction of Gaza will begin. As of right now, stages two and three are only agreed to in principle so far. /dd>

How will the ceasefire be managed? Are there accountability mechanisms in place for both parties?

There is a verification mechanism for this agreement based in Cairo that includes representatives from Israel, Hamas, and the mediators—The US, Egypt, and Qatar. This mechanism has already been tested when a crisis broke out on January 25. Israel claimed that Hamas breached the deal by avoiding the release of the last living Israeli civilian hostage and in turn, did not allow Palestinians from northern Gaza to return to their homes. The mechanism, however, seems to have worked as intended and solved the issue within one day.

One of the key aspects of the ceasefire is the release of the remaining Israeli hostages. What is the sentiment from families?

The families of the hostages are not of one ideology politically, but for all of them, the last 15 months have been a nightmare. Many feel that in addition to the need to fight against the Hamas terrorists who kidnapped or murdered their family members, they also need to fight Israel’s government, which wants to continue the war for politically partisan reasons and does not, in fact, prioritize the release of hostages, which entails the end of the war. A significant majority of Israelis prioritize returning the hostages for any price, but that view is not prevailing within the governing coalition. The families of the hostages, like many Gazans, are yearning to get their loved ones back and to start the journey of recovery.

What does this ceasefire mean going forward? Is this the beginning of a longer peace process?

The ceasefire could lead to a larger movement towards peace, but that depends on two main factors: First, the Trump administration’s vision for regional peace is one based on commercial interest. Second, Saudi Arabia, which is situated at the core of this vision, would not advance in that direction without Israel agreeing to at least a path toward a future Palestinian state. The current Israeli government is unlikely to agree to such a plan. The question, then, is whether President Trump will be willing to press the Israeli hard-right government, which is otherwise a very close ally, to allow that path for peace.

What does international aid look like during the ceasefire? How are other countries supporting the ceasefire and a potential future peace process?

The international aid that has been allowed into Gaza since the start of the ceasefire is vastly greater than what Gaza received before the agreement. Yet, even if we assume that all three stages of the deal will be implemented and the war will come to an end, the future of Gaza is fragile. The entire economy of the region is ruined, and about 90 percent of the buildings and infrastructure are damaged or destroyed. Arab Gulf states and other international actors are willing to invest heavily in the reconstruction of Gaza, but not if Hamas returns to control it, which they rightfully perceive to bring no end to the cycle of violence.